September 3, 2024 — Refiner Phillips 66 is selling East Texas natural gas processing and gathering assets to Houston-based Voyager Midstream Holdings, a portfolio firm of Pearl Energy Investments, Phillips said Tuesday
Voyager said the assets are located in Panola, Rusk and Harrison counties in Texas and…
In Depth Opinion/Analysis by Jeff Masters, PhD, a former Chief Meteorologist at Weather Underground
The words of explorer John Wesley Powell on the eve of his departure into the unexplored depths of the Grand Canyon in 1869 best describe how I see our path ahead as we brave the unknown rapids of climate change:
We are now ready to start our way down the Great Unknown. We have an unknown distance yet to run, an unknown river to explore. What falls there are, we know not; what rocks beset the channel, we know not; what walls rise over the river, we know not. Ah, well! We may conjecture many things. The men talk as cheerfully as ever; jests are bandied about freely this morning; but to me the cheer is somber and the jests are ghastly.
Powell’s expedition made it through the canyon, but the explorers endured great hardship, suffering near-drownings, the destruction of two of their four boats, and the loss of much of their supplies. In the end, only six of the nine men survived.
Likewise, we find ourselves in an ever-deepening chasm of climate change impacts, forced to run a perilous course through dangerous rapids of unknown ferocity. Our path will be fraught with great peril, and there will be tremendous suffering, great loss of life, and the destruction of much that is precious.
It is inevitable that climate change will stop being a hazy future concern and will someday turn everyday life upside down. Very hard times are coming. At the risk of causing counterproductive climate anxiety and doomism, I offer here some observations and speculations on how the planetary crisis may play out, using my 45 years of experience as a meteorologist, including four years of flying with the Hurricane Hunters and 20 years blogging about extreme weather and climate change. The scenarios that I depict as the most likely are much harsher than what other experts might choose, but I’ve seen repeatedly that uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to climate change. This will be a long and intense ride, but if you stick through the end, I promise there will be a rainbow.
By late this century, I am optimistic that we will have successfully ridden the rapids of the climate crisis, emerging into a new era of non-polluting energy with a stabilizing climate. There are too many talented and dedicated people who understand the problem and are working hard on solutions for us to fail.
Although there is a major climate change hurricane approaching, we’re busy throwing a hurricane party, charging up our planetary credit card to pay for the expenses, with little regard to the approaching storm that is already cutting off our escape routes. This great storm will fundamentally rip at the fabric of society, creating chaos and a crisis likely to last for many decades.
The intensifying climate change storm will soon reach a threshold I think of as a category 1 hurricane for humanity — when long-term global warming surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, a value increasingly characterized over the last decade as “dangerous” climate change.
For humanity as a whole, this amount of warming is risky, but not devastating. Global warming is currently at about 1.2-1.3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures and is likely to cross the 1.5-degree threshold in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Assuming that we don’t work exceptionally hard to reduce emissions in the next 10 years, the world is expected to reach 2 degrees Celsius of warming between 2045 and 2051. In my estimation, that will be akin to a major category 3 hurricane for humanity — devastating, but not catastrophic.
Allowing global warming to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius will cause category 4-level damage to civilization — approaching the catastrophic level. And warming in excess of 3 degrees Celsius will likely be a catastrophic category 5-level superstorm of destruction that will crash civilization.
We must take strong action rapidly to rein in our emissions of heat-trapping gases to avoid that outcome — and build great resilience to the extreme climate of the 21st century that we have so foolishly brought upon ourselves.
According to the Carbon Action Tracker (see tweet below), we are on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming; if the nations of the world meet their targets for reducing heat-trapping climate pollution, warming will be limited to 2.1 degrees. There’s a big difference between being hit by a Cat 4 versus a Cat 3, and every tenth of a degree of warming that we prevent will be critical.
As climate scientist Michael Mann explains in his latest book, “Our Fragile Moment,” great climate science communicator…
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration forecast that crude oil production in the United States will grow to an average of 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d) and marketed natural gas production will grow to an average of 114.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Most of the forecast growth in oil and natural gas production comes from the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico, where the EIA expects productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure, and high crude oil prices will support rising production.
From the EIA: “In order to better capture drilling activity in several onshore U.S. regions, our STEO now makes use of multiple drilling productivity metrics. The number of active rigs is the first in a sequence of metrics that affects regional production; currently more rigs…
By Alex Mills
Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed an economic plan, which includes price controls, to fix the problems created during the Biden-Harris administration. The plan involves establishing federal price controls on food and implementing punishment for grocery stores for “price gouging.”
The history of price controls dates back some 50 years and involves energy.
On August 15, 1971, ironically Harris introduced her plan on August 16, President Richard Nixon introduced his “90-day price freeze” on many items including petroleum. Shortages began the next year, and the industry was fast-tracked to allocation controls and a suite of government programs to increase supply or reduce demand.
“The 37th president of the United States got on the wrong side of economic law three years before his resignation by imposing the first peacetime wage-and-price controls in American history,” wrote Robert L.Bradly, Jr., Senior Fellow at the American Institute of Economic Research.
Nixon’s Phase I turned into Phase II…
August 20, 2024 — The Environmental Partnership recently released its 2024 Annual Report detailing the ongoing success of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry’s collaborative efforts to reduce methane emissions. The report shows measurable results across all of the Partnership’s eight environmental performance programs that span the entirety of the energy supply chain. Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association (TXOGA) issued the following statement:
“The Environmental Partnership’s member companies have proven, once again, that collaboration, innovation and commitment to a shared goal of reducing emissions are achieving meaningful and lasting environmental results. TXOGA applauds not only their ongoing success, but the continuing growth of the Partnership and its impact.
“Through the Partnership as well as other industry-led collaborative efforts such as the Texas Methane & Flaring Commission and the Texas Seismicity…
August 16, 2024 — RRC Commissioners voted to publish for public comment proposed amendments that are critical to updating the agency’s rules regulating waste management facilities.
This is the first overhaul of RRC’s waste management rules in four decades. Groundwater protection is a major factor in the rule amendments, and they also take into consideration the need for historical rules to adapt to technological advancements in the energy industry’s resource development in Texas.
The amendments pertain to not only waste from oil and gas operations, such as rock and other material pulled up from the ground during drilling, but also encapsulate waste from other operations for which the Legislature has given the RRC jurisdiction. Examples include geothermal, carbon sequestration and brine mining wells.
The proposed rule updates requirements on the design, construction, operation, monitoring, and closure of waste management units, and help improve the Commission’s ability to track and collect data on oilfield waste transported throughout Texas.
Many of the amendments codify informal guidance…
By Alex Mills
Drilling for new oil and natural gas reserves in Texas and across the nation has declined 10% this year, but production continues at a record pace.
Historically, production declined when the Baker Hughes Rig Count, a key economic indicator, declined.
The U.S. rig count was 588 this week, which is a decline of 66 from last year at this time. Even the Permian Basin, the most active area in the nation, has declined 23 this year from 327 in August 2023 to 304 this week.
Today’s oil companies have become more efficient in the exploration-and-production game.
The industry now is drilling multiple wells from a single pad, which cuts the cost of moving the drilling rig each time to drill a new well. Companies also…
August 16, 2024 — The Railroad Commission of Texas assessed $2,173,382.40 in fines involving 715 enforcement dockets against operators and businesses at the Commissioners’ Conference on Thursday. The Commission has primary oversight and enforcement of the state’s oil and gas industry and intrastate pipeline safety.
Master default orders for operators that failed to appear at Commission enforcement proceedings can be found on the RRC Hearings Division web page.
Master Agreed Orders in which operators…
By Alex Mills
The demand for crude oil and natural gas in the U.S. and around the globe continued at a record pace through the first half of 2024 and producers in Texas and throughout the nation struggled to keep pace with consumer demand.
On the international scene, the Organization of Petroleum Countries (OPEC) believes that demand will rise by 2 million barrels per day to 106 million barrels per day.
The Energy Information Administration forecast global consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day this year.
EIA expects crude oil prices to increase during the second half of the year.
“The Brent crude oil spot price ended July at…
August 7, 2024 — Four groups representing Southeast Texas cities and consumers on Wednesday filed a protest with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) against CenterPoint’s withdrawal of a rate increase request, while accusing the company of significantly overcharging customers.
The Gulf Coast Coalition of Cities, the Gulf Coast Utilities Coalition, the Houston Coalition of Cities, and the Texas Consumer Coalition filed the request for intervention with the PUC, offering a Joint Response Opposing CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric LLC‘s notice of withdrawal.
The filing contends that CenterPoint doesn’t have the authority to “unilaterally withdraw this case.”…
August 5, 2024 — The Railroad Commission of Texas issued a total of 771 original drilling permits in July 2024. The total includes 685 to drill new oil or gas wells, 12 to re-enter plugged wellbores and 68 for re-completions of existing wellbores.
The breakdown of well types for total original drilling permits in July 2024 is: 137 oil, 48 gas, 544 oil and gas, 28 injection, and 14 other permits.
In July 2024, Commission staff processed 805 oil, 222 gas, and 355 injection completions for new drills, re-entries and re-completions.
Detailed data on drilling permits and well completions for the…
August 2, 2024 — Statewide and county crude oil and natural gas production for May 2024 reported in the tables below came from 160,233 oil wells and 83,415 gas wells.
Crude oil production reported by the RRC is limited to oil produced from oil leases and does not include condensate, which is reported separately by the RRC. For full oil and…
August 2, 2024 — Chevron is moving its headquarters from California to Houston over the next several years, the company said in a statement Friday.
Plans are to move Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth and Vice Chairman Mark Nelson to Houston before the end of this year, joining the company’s 7,000 local employees and other senior managers for “better collaboration and engagement with executives, employees, and business partners.”
Chevron’s 2,000…
August 1, 2024 — State tax income from Texas natural gas production was up 152% in July when compared to the same month a year, with a notable increase in oil taxes as well.
Natural gas production tax last month totaled $164 million, a 152% jump from July 2023, according to the state comptroller’s office.
Oil production taxes totaled $557 million…
August 1, 2024 — CenterPoint has filed papers to withdraw its request to the PUC for a rate increase “without prejudice,” just after the money is needed to “make significant investments in our infrastructure.”**
The rate hike was intended to help recover costs from recent storms, estimated to be about $1.8 billion.
Hurricane Beryl in Southeast Texas last month is estimated to have cost the power delivery system $1.3 billion.
CenterPoint and its CEO Jason P. Wells have come under scrutiny from the state legislature this week, with some lawmakers critical of the utility’s communications and recovery efforts following Beryl.
See the PUC filing receipt here.
…
By Alex Mills
Vice President Kamala Harris, who presumably will be the Democrat nominee for President following the withdrawal of Joe Biden last week, apparently is not a fan of America’s oil and gas industry.
Even though Harris has not officially won the Democratic nomination yet (the convention will be held in August), her previous statements and positions indicate she will push for more regulations and laws to make finding and producing more hydrocarbons in the U.S. more difficult.
She served only four years in the Senate (2017-2021) as the junior Senator from California. She ran for President against Biden and a host of other candidates, but dropped out of the race before the primaries began. Now, she is getting a chance to run as the Democratic candidate for President without obtaining any delegates or facing other potential candidates in a debate on the issues.
During her term in the Senate and as a candidate for President she made numerous statements opposing hydraulic fracturing, which has been a critical…
By Alex Mills
July 20, 2024 — It’s official: Donald J. Trump is the Republican Party’s candidate for President of the United States of America for the third time.
All indications point to Trump taking many of the same positions on energy issues that he took in 2016 and in 2020, which included reducing taxes and regulations, encouraging drilling and production, and approval of new infrastructure projects.
Trump overturned many of the restrictions and regulations implemented by President Obama, and he has said he will reverse many of the programs adopted by President Biden.
Trump has said many times this year he will encourage the domestic oil and gas industry to “drill, baby, drill.” He believes that a healthy oil and gas industry contributes to a healthy economy and decreases U.S. reliance on foreign energy.
The Biden administration has reduced leasing of federal public lands (onshore and offshore). Trump most likely will seek to change the Biden leasing practice and offer more lands for exploration.
Additionally, the Biden administration has issued a temporary…
July 15, 2024 — As in many areas of modern life, big data has become a big deal in nuclear engineering. A Texas A&M nuclear engineering professor will investigate artificial intelligence’s ability to harness data to improve the next generation of nuclear reactors.
Yang Liu, an assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Nuclear Engineering, is one of four researchers chosen for this year’s Distinguished Early Career Award from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Program. This annual award provides funding for outstanding university faculty early in their careers who will help advance nuclear energy research.
Liu’s research focuses on the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in designing and controlling nuclear reactors. At Texas A&M, he established the Scientific Machine Learning for Advanced Reactor Technologies (SMART) laboratory, where he and his students focus on using ML to enhance simulations, engineering decisions, and the operation of nuclear systems.
During his doctoral studies at North Carolina…
By Alex Mills
July 13, 2024 — The debate over climate change and the possible causes and solutions have included many topics including methane emissions from crude oil and natural gas. The discussion has been ongoing for quite some time.
Recently an official from the oil and gas regulatory agency in Texas pointed out that the industry in Texas, along with the oversight of the agency, has been able to significantly decrease emissions.
The official is Wayne Christian, who was first elected to the Texas Railroad Commission in 2016, pointed out the success achieved.
“We all want clean air and water,” Christian began. “We all want to be good stewards of our land and natural resources. And over the last 50…
July 1, 2024 — The Texas comptroller’s office says oil production tax income during June was up eight percent when compared to a year ago.
The state took in $493 million last month, similar to estimates made by the US Energy Information Administration, which three weeks ago called for an 8% increase in Permian Basin oil production in 2024.
Natural gas production tax income at $171 million was down 7 percent in June 2024 compared to June 2023, according to Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar.
Motor fuel taxes took in $340 million, up…