Author: Shiloh

By Alex Mills

Crude oil prices declined again this week on speculation that future demand will decrease as the global recession gains more strength into 2023.

Brent crude oil prices closed at $79 per barrel on the international exchange in London on Dec. 7 and West Texas Intermediate closed at $72, which is below the previous low of $76 recorded on Jan. 1.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the Department of Energy released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Wednesday estimating that Brent price will average $92 per barrel in 2023, which is $3 less than it forecast last month.

EIA also forecast global oil inventories will fall by 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) during the first half of 2023.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have declined recently to 413.9 million barrels, which is 19 million barrels less than it high point of 432 million barrels in August….
 

December 7, 2022 — Recent legislation like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act gives a huge boost to the nation’s efforts to achieve a clean energy transition.

The energy transition, a global transformation of energy systems away from fossil fuels to renewable and clean energy sources by 2050, is necessary to ward off the worst impacts of climate change. It will entail overhauling our energy resources, systems, economics, policies, and our behavior. It will require a huge expansion of renewable energy sources, the phase out of coal and oil, and increased energy efficiency across the board. It will not be easy. Below are five factors that will be crucial in order to decarbonize our society, according to Columbia University….
 

December 3, 2022 — Natural gas tax income for the State of Texas continued it’s comeback in November following the economic downturn related to Covid 19, with tax revenue reported by the comptroller up 41% year-over-year (y/y), with overall state sales tax income the largest ever.

Natural gas production tax income was $410 million….
 

December 1, 2022 — Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) today issued the following statement on the passing of past TXOGA president Rob Looney:

“The passing of Rob Looney is not only a loss for his family and the oil and natural gas industry where he played such a key role for many years, but to all of Texas. Having served as president of TXOGA for more than 25 years before retiring in 2014, Rob instituted many transformative initiatives….
 

December 1, 2022 — Yesterday, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced the transfer of $3.64 billion to the Economic Stabilization Fund (Rainy Day Fund) and $3.64 billion the State Highway Fund (SHF).

“The transfer $7.3 billion of oil and gas industry tax revenue is further concrete proof that the oil and gas industry is invaluable to the State of Texas. Revenue from the oil and gas industry is what’s in the Rainy Day Fund, accounts for billions to the State Highway Fund, and contributes to state funds that pay for schools, universities, and first responders,” RRC Chairman Wayne Christian said….
 

By Alex Mills It took a year, but gasoline prices in Texas dropped this week below last year’s price. Diesel, on the other hand, remains above November 2021. According to AAA, gasoline prices …

November 29, 2022 — Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced today he has completed the transfer of about $7.3 billion into the State Highway Fund (SHF) and the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF; commonly known as the “Rainy Day Fund”). Each fund received nearly $3.64 billion, or 50 percent of the total transfer.

“Texas’ strong economic recovery continues but inflation and supply chain issues coupled with ongoing geopolitical unrest point to uncertainty on the horizon,” Hegar said. “Additionally, our economic strength and business friendly environment continue to attract people and businesses to Texas….
 

November 23, 2022 — The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) is warning O&G and pipeline operators about expected heavy snowfall in West Texas and the Panhandle.

And while the National Weather Service (NWS) and other forecasters are calling for a possible 24″ of snow in the Amarillo area and up to 18″ in other portions of the Panhandle Thursday night into Friday, the forecast is far from certain….
 

November 18, 2022 — Freeport LNG Development, L.P. said in a press release on Friday that work necessary for reopening its plant south of Houston is about 90% complete.

The company is looking toward “utilization of all three liquefaction trains, two LNG storage tanks and one dock…with all reconstruction work anticipated to be completed by the end of November.”…
 

By Alex Mills

Even though many petroleum industry and government officials predict global demand to increase in the coming months, they fully recognize a high degree of uncertainty within the markets on the demand side and the supply side, too.

The Covid lockdown in China, one of the largest importers of oil, continues to impact demand as does high inflation, tight monetary policy by central banks, and persistent supply chain constraints in many countries around the globe.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued its monthly report this week stating October production by OPEC members averaged 29.49 million barrels per day (b/d), which is 210,000 b/d less than September. OPEC forecast global oil demand will increase 2.55 million b/d (2.6%), which is a 100,000 b/d decrease from last month’s forecast.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has muddied the waters, also….
 

November 17, 2022 — The Comptroller’s Office of Texas has released the Fiscal 2022 State of Texas Annual Cash Report.

It’s a “cash-basis representation of the state’s financial condition as of Aug. 31, 2022” showing revenue and expenditure details for all funds in the State Treasury.

You can see the report…
 

November 16, 2022 — Sempra Infrastructure has a new non-binding Heads of Agreement (HOA) with Williams in an LNG deal along with natural gas pipeline projects to augment Gulf Coast-area natural gas supplies into markets around the world.

The companies are looking at two 20-year long-term sale and purchase agreements for about 3 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of LNG in the aggregate from the Port Arthur LNG project under development in Jefferson County as well as the Cameron LNG Phase 2 project under development in Hackberry, Louisiana….
 

November 16, 2022 — New York- and London-based ENG investor Monarch Private Capital has closed on a dozen solar energy projects in Texas and four other states with an estimated total capacity of 363 MW.

Monarch, which finances and manages a projects portfolio that “generate both federal and state tax credits,” calls the acquisition “tax equity investments.”…
 

November 15, 2022 — Members of the Texas Legislature have filed their first energy-related bills for the new biannual session beginning in January, four of them covering petroleum- and renewable energy-related issues.

District 81 Rep. Brooks Landgraf‘s House Bill 33 attempts to restrict Texas agencies from contracting with federal agencies over O&G laws: “An agency of this state or a person employed by an agency of this state may not contract with or in any other manner provide assistance to a federal agency or official with respect to the enforcement of a federal statute, order, rule, or regulation purporting to regulate oil and gas operations if the statute, order, rule, or regulation imposes a prohibition, restriction, or other regulation that does not exist under the laws of this state”…
 

November 15, 2022 — An emerging company that uses Earth- and air-based measurements of climate gases and air pollution says it will launch in January a balloon equipped with methane-detection sensors over the Permian Basin.

Waverly, Tennessee-based Scepter says it plans to move up to attaching sensors to satellites to be placed in low-Earth orbit to monitor emissions globally, in cooperation with some oil companies, including Exxon.

The company says it’s the first time balloons carrying hyperspectral sensors operating in short-wave infrared have been commercially deployed to obtain detailed level of data, measuring down to 50 kg methane per hour and lower—a moderate-sized industrial leak….
 

AEP Third-quarter 2022 GAAP earnings of $1.33 per share and $1.62 per share operating Company reaffirms narrowed 2022 operating earnings (non-GAAP) guidance range of $4.97 to $5.07, raised midpoint of $5.02, and 6% to 7% long-term growth rate $40 billion, five-year …

The following statement can be attributed to Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association:

“The E3 report released today by the Public Utility Commission (PUC) recommends the implementation of a forward reliability market—a capacity market for the ERCOT system. Total system cost, cost to consumers—industrial and residential—and timeframes of implementation remain of great concern for the Texas oil and natural gas industry with this type of design.
 

By Alex Mills
…U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil have been below the five-year (2017–2021) low since the start of 2022. Since April, total U.S. distillate inventories have been below the five-year low and more than 20% below the five-year average.

“The low inventories have primarily been the result of less global refining capacity since 2020, as well as high demand in early 2022 and global trade disruptions later in the year linked to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” EIA said….